The year 2011, even if it is not quite complete, is already to mark a milestone in the history of energy. Year over year, the price per barrel in London stores simply the highest average in history, to 111 dollars. The figure has been communicated to customers by the Cambridge Energy Research Associates, A research firm specializing in energy, expertise.
In his report, Cera said that the previous record of Brent dated back to 2008, with an average set at 99.07 dollars. That year, in early summer, the price had recorded a very high fever, just below $ 150. Some observers were so quick to talk about the third oil shock, before a sharp decline in prices. In 2011, no record to report timely, but an average much higher over the month.
In a move to put into perspective, the Cera also focuses on the first two oil shocks: in 1973 constant dollars, Brent had averaged $ 30. And $ 80 in 1979. It measures how the price of oilFor three decades, have been drawn into an inflationary spiral.
The average reached $ 111 this year was primarily due to increased demand: one, to 89 million barrels per day (bpd), also recorded a new record. “Seen from Europe, the intensity of the crisis is that is not aware of the strong growth in consumption of petroleum products. It is different in China and India: two countries now take literally global demand, “said an industry expert.
The consequences of the Arab spring
But the increased demand is not the only factor capable of influencing the course. The Arab Spring, and more generally all the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are also highlighted by the experts of Cera. Thus, in Libya, the production includes only gradually: it now with the nearby 600,000 barrels per day, with a return to normal – 1.58 million bpd – hoping for the second quarter of next year.
For 2012 and 2013, the average Brent promise to be more stabilized but experience shows how the estimates are difficult to handle. Inflation raises the barrel now many concerns about its impact on the economies of developed countries. Even the “majors” of black gold are ostensibly from their fears. This week in Doha, at the World Petroleum Congress, Robert Dudley, the boss of BP operations, said that in 2011, U.S. consumers had spent $ 200 billion more than in 2010 for their purchases of products Oil! 200 billion they have spent on other purchases, which could increase pressure on the U.S. economy also fragile. Now, said the leader of the British company, the world economy is so interconnected that a significant event in the United States inevitably has repercussions on other parts of the world.